Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 22.772620 24.788231 26.968146 29.512595 32.415832 35.642906 39.526009
2025-11-23 19.481072 22.198588 25.342407 29.293106 34.190248 40.150908 48.098936
2025-11-30 17.164958 20.255551 24.023551 29.050528 35.734293 44.553007 57.506037
2025-12-07 15.522209 18.840430 23.063408 28.989543 37.368352 49.271128 68.468295
2025-12-14 14.192481 17.623480 22.146327 28.769230 38.647042 53.648041 80.094750
2025-12-21 13.530609 17.182442 22.167965 29.792397 41.821122 61.471263 99.860105
2025-12-28 12.602509 16.269351 21.407117 29.527404 42.911769 66.104120 115.554411
2026-01-04 11.881133 15.569586 20.862421 29.489416 44.317646 71.553431 135.146077
2026-01-11 11.350311 15.089621 20.580918 29.807269 46.350484 78.637518 161.928034
2026-01-18 10.762623 14.474723 20.029002 29.596978 47.372568 83.936108 187.239327
2026-01-25 10.247159 13.927108 19.528343 29.403124 48.374424 89.441329 216.768782
2026-02-01 9.813497 13.471622 19.131513 29.335866 49.599473 95.793372 253.968277
2026-02-08 9.376158 12.991365 18.671110 29.130838 50.573890 102.026880 297.509036
2026-02-15 8.972355 12.539413 18.224051 28.904396 51.479112 108.454297 349.743828
2026-02-22 8.600683 12.116025 17.792977 28.661149 52.312368 115.033745 412.440947
2026-03-01 8.291264 11.774071 17.474363 28.598793 53.551832 123.316298 499.608125
2026-03-08 7.981786 11.414134 17.098267 28.381503 54.389730 130.745435 598.701911
2026-03-15 7.883986 11.395316 17.316157 29.384191 58.427914 150.806238 863.826349
2026-03-22 7.606414 11.060741 16.945569 29.124082 59.184284 159.556168 1064.464811
2026-03-29 7.379858 10.800518 16.692262 29.086693 60.537417 171.446722 1382.535976
2026-04-05 7.215309 10.637028 16.604751 29.398257 62.928603 189.235682 1980.028567
2026-04-12 6.994143 10.365183 16.297800 29.192050 63.803940 200.911934 2639.315377
2026-04-19 6.788835 10.111571 16.010091 29.001965 64.702902 213.476669 3642.583865